Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry has released its pre-budget statement, projecting a fiscal deficit of 3.6% of GDP by 2027. The budget outline reveals anticipated total expenditures of 1.39 trillion Saudi riyals ($370.21 billion) against projected revenues of 1.20 trillion riyals. This financial framework is designed to prioritize development while ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability.
According to the statement, Saudi Arabia forecasts an increase in revenues to 1.351 trillion riyals by 2029, while expenditures are expected to rise to 1.544 trillion riyals. The Kingdom attributes these financial strategies to economic reforms under Vision 2030, which have diversified the economy, strengthened the business environment, and elevated the private sector’s role in economic growth.
The growth in non-oil revenues is notable, having expanded from 166 billion riyals in 2015 to an expected 505 billion riyals by 2025. During the first half of 2026, non-oil activities grew by 1.8%, contributing 57.3% to the GDP. However, preliminary estimates suggest a contraction of real GDP by 3.6% in 2026, primarily due to an anticipated 21.8% decline in the oil sector. Despite this, non-oil activities are expected to grow by 3.2%, partially mitigating the decline in the oil sector.
Looking ahead to 2027, the Finance Ministry projects a significant real GDP growth of 12.8%, with inflation expected to remain stable, averaging 1.9% annually from 2027 to 2029. Additionally, Saudi Arabia plans to continue borrowing on both domestic and international fronts, utilizing instruments such as bonds, sukuk, loans, and project and infrastructure financing.
The government’s fiscal strategy aims to bolster economic growth, maintain financial stability, and retain flexibility to navigate global economic and geopolitical shifts, all while advancing the objectives of Vision 2030.